April Newsletter 2026

April 2026 Financial Insight Newsletter – April 1, 2026

Genti Cici (CFP®, CAIA) & Dr. Tai Yong Lee

Many people worry about running out of money in retirement. It’s one of the most common fears we hear, and the typical response sounds like this:

“I should move my money somewhere safe. Like a bank or money market where the principal won’t go down.”

However, this way of thinking can be one of the biggest risks to a successful retirement plan.

Let’s look at a simple example. Suppose you have $1 million at retirement and withdraw 4% annually (adjusted each year for 2.5% inflation). If the funds are invested in a balanced portfolio earning an average annual return of 6%, the money can last over 40 years. But if the same funds are kept in cash or a bank account earning 2.5%, they will be depleted in about 25 years.

Same starting amount. Same withdrawal (starting at $40,000 per year). Only one difference: whether your money is working for you—or simply shrinking over time.

< $1 Million Portfolio: Staying Invested vs. Holding Cash (40-Year Comparison) >

Probability of Portfolio Longevity

(10,000 Monte Carlo simulations, 60/40 portfolio, 3% inflation)

Based on 10,000 simulations, a balanced 60/40 (stock/bond) portfolio has an 89% probability of lasting 30 years under a 4% withdrawal rule. In contrast, holding cash results in a 0% probability—not low, but zero.

This is why pulling investments out during market downturns or moving to cash “until things stabilize” is not a prudent strategy. In fact, it may be one of the most dangerous decisions for retirement funds. Staying invested can extend the life of your assets by more than 15 years. The 4% withdrawal rule works—but only if you remain invested.

What to Do—and What to Avoid

What we shared last month still holds true. Investors who sold during crises—such as geopolitical conflicts, COVID-19, or tariff shocks—locked in losses and missed the recovery. The outcome has been the same every time.

This month, we want to emphasize a longer-term perspective. The goal is not just to survive the next crisis, but to ensure your assets last a lifetime. The data is clear: the most reliable way to achieve this is to stay invested. Not in money markets or simple savings accounts, but in a diversified, goal-oriented portfolio designed to grow through all market conditions—crises, recoveries, and ordinary times—through the power of compounding.

Key Action Steps

First, keep 3–6 months of living expenses in cash. This acts as a buffer so you won’t need to sell investments during market downturns.

Second, do not move retirement funds into cash. Data shows that bank cash is depleted about 15 years faster than a balanced portfolio. In retirement planning, the word “safe” can be misleading—and even dangerous. Retirement is not a one-time expense; it spans decades.

Third, if you are holding funds without investing them, consider consulting a financial advisor—not to act impulsively, but to verify whether your current plan is mathematically sound and whether you truly understand what “safety” means.

The True Meaning of “Safe”

“Safe” does not mean holding cash that earns a low, fixed return and fails to keep up with inflation. True safety means ensuring your money lasts a lifetime and supports a comfortable retirement.

The market has overcome two world wars, the Cold War, 9/11, the 2008 financial crisis, COVID-19, and recent Middle East conflicts. Even during the most challenging 30-year periods in U.S. history, markets have delivered approximately 8% average annual returns.

The difference between staying invested and staying in cash during retirement is not just a few percentage points—it determines whether your money lasts or runs out.

Decisions driven by fear have never proven to be the right ones. This time is no different.

If you would like to discuss your personal situation, please feel free to contact us anytime.

Wealth & Wise Family OfficeT. 410-469-9532Genti Cici Advisor & Dr. TaI Young Lee,

Diana Seo (Ext. 102)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XMzqhkVR7i0