March 2026 Financial Insights Newsletter :: March 2, 2026

By Genti Cici, CFP®, CAIA  • Dr. TaiYoung Lee

War in the Middle East: What It Means for Your Money

We’re not waiting until mid-week to reach out. Markets are already moving and you deserve a clear-headed take, not a rushed one three days from now.

U.S. and Israeli strikes killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei on Saturday. Iran struck back at Gulf cities. Airlines canceled flights. Oil tankers anchored near the Strait of Hormuz and waited.

What’s Moving

Oil jumped 10% to ~$80/barrel Sunday. Gold hit $5,390/oz. Dollar surged. U.S. equity futures dropped ~0.8% before clawing back some losses after reports Iran may be open to nuclear talks. The Strait of Hormuz, where 20% of the world’s daily oil supply passes through a 2-mile shipping lane, is effectively frozen.

Two Scenarios

Best case: Diplomacy kicks in, Iran’s new leadership signals pragmatism, oil pulls back, markets recover. This becomes a bad weekend, not a crisis. Happened before—see last June’s brief Iran conflict.

Worst case: Prolonged conflict, Strait stays disrupted, oil hits $100–130+. Inflation spikes. Recession risk climbs. Low probability, but not zero, and markets will keep pricing in the uncertainty until the picture clears. Markets hate uncertainty more than bad news.

Our base case: Short conflict, partial de-escalation, oil back to $70–80 by month-end. Worth noting—the U.S. is now the world’s largest oil producer at 17.8 million barrels/day. A global oil shock hits Europe and Asia harder than it hits us. Our diversified portfolios are doing exactly what they’re built to do, but we do need to keep our emotions in check too.

What to Do (and Not Do)

I’ll be direct. The investors who sold during COVID lows, the 2022 rate shock, last April’s tariff selloff—they didn’t protect themselves. They locked in losses and sat in cash while the recoveries happened without them. Every single time. Chasing oil or gold after a 10% gap-up isn’t a strategy either, that’s fear dressed up as a trade.

What actually helps right now: make sure you have 3–6 months of expenses in cash. That’s what lets you stay invested without being forced to sell at the wrong time. If your portfolio was built for your timeline before this weekend, it doesn’t need surgery, it needs patience.

And if you have capital sitting on the sidelines—this is worth a conversation. Not to act impulsively, but to think clearly. Historically, the moments that feel the worst to deploy capital have been among the best entry points. Fear is not an investment strategy, and neither is waiting for the all-clear that never comes.

I’ll leave you with this. Markets survived two World Wars, the Cold War, 9/11, 2008, COVID, and every crisis in between. The S&P 500’s worst 30-year average since 1928—a stretch that includes the Great Depression—was still +8% annually. Not the best. The worst. Panic has never been the right call. It’s not this time either.

We’re watching this closely. If you want to talk through your specific situation, reach out.

Stay grounded,

Genti Cici, CFP®, CAIA / Dr. TaiYoung Lee