April 2026 Financial Insights Newsletter, April 1, 2026

By Genti Cici, CFP®, CAIA & Dr. Tai Young Lee

The Retirement Math That Should Keep You Invested

Most people worry about running out of money in retirement. It’s one of the most common fears we hear. And the instinct is usually the same: “I’ll put my money somewhere safe. The bank. A money market. Something that won’t lose value.”

That instinct is the single biggest threat to your retirement.

Take a simple scenario: $1 million at retirement, withdrawing 4% annually (adjusted for inflation each year, thereafter). If you stay invested in a balanced portfolio averaging 6% returns, your money lasts 40+ years. If you sit in cash or a bank account earning 2.5%? Your money is gone by year 25.

Same nest egg. Same withdrawals, starting at $40K/year. The only difference is whether your money is working or just sitting there waiting to be spent down.

Run 10,000 simulations. At a 4% withdrawal rate, staying invested in a balanced 60/40 portfolio gives you an 89% chance of your money lasting 30 years. Sitting in cash? Zero percent. Not low. Zero. This is why pulling out of the market during a crisis—or moving to cash “just until things calm down”—isn’t cautious. It’s the riskiest thing you can do with your retirement. Staying invested adds 15+ years to your portfolio’s life. The 4% rule works. But only if you stay invested.

[What to Do (and Not Do)]

Everything we said last month still applies. The investors who sold during the Iran strikes, during COVID, during the tariff shock—they locked in losses while the recoveries happened without them. Every single time.

But this month we’re adding the longer lens: it’s not just about surviving the next crisis. It’s about making sure your wealth outlasts you. And the data is overwhelming—the only way to do that with high confidence is to stay invested. Not in a money market. Not in a savings account. In a diversified, goals-aligned portfolio that compounds through every crisis, recovery, and boring Tuesday in between.

Your action items still remain simple:

First, keep 3–6 months of expenses in cash. That’s your buffer—so you never have to sell investments at the wrong time.

Second, do not move your retirement portfolio to cash. The data is clear: cash in the bank runs out 15 years sooner than a balanced portfolio. “Safe” is the most dangerous word in retirement planning. And, when you retire you won’t need all the money right away, not to mention that you may be in retirement for decades.

Third, if you have capital on the sidelines, this is worth a conversation. Not to act impulsively—but to think clearly about whether your long-term plan matches the math and if ‘safe’ means what you think it means.

Because 'safe' doesn't mean low \& fixed returns that can't keep up with inflation — it means making sure your money outlasts you and provides for a long and comfortable retirement.

Markets survived two World Wars, the Cold War, 9/11, the 2008 crisis, COVID, and last month’s conflict in the Middle East. The worst 30-year period in U.S. history still returned roughly 8% per year. And the difference between staying invested and sitting in cash over a retirement horizon isn’t a few percentage points—it’s whether your money lasts or it doesn’t. **Panic has never been the right call. It’s not this time either.**

If you want to talk through your specific situation, reach out. Genti Cici CFP®, CAIA \& Dr. Tai Young Lee at Wealthy & Wise Family Office